11
BBYM Financial Literacy Topic #11

Reading the Market's
Price Memory.

Technical analysis is the study of price charts and trading volume to forecast future price movement — without ever looking at a company's earnings or balance sheet. It's the language of professional traders: candlesticks, moving averages, RSI, support and resistance, and chart patterns that have repeated across every market in history.

🟠 Intermediate Ages 15+ Candlestick Charts RSI & MACD Support & Resistance Moving Averages 📈 Chart Patterns
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RSI (14)
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MA 50
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Volume
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✓ PRICE ABOVE MA50 · RSI NOT OVERBOUGHT
1880sCharles Dow first charted market patterns
70%+Professional traders use TA in their process
RSIMost widely used momentum indicator
200-dayMoving average watched by every institutional desk
~60%Historical accuracy of key chart patterns

What Is Technical Analysis?

Technical analysis (TA) is the study of historical price and volume data to forecast future price direction. Its core premise: all known information is already reflected in price. You don't need to know why a stock is moving — the chart tells you where it's been, and patterns tend to repeat because human psychology doesn't change.

TA operates on three principles coined by Charles Dow in the 1880s: (1) the market discounts everything — all news, fundamentals, and sentiment are priced in; (2) prices move in trends — uptrend, downtrend, or sideways; (3) history repeats — because trader psychology repeats. Fear, greed, panic, and euphoria create the same patterns century after century.

TA is particularly useful for timing entries and exits — even if you use fundamental analysis to pick which stocks to own, technical analysis helps you decide when to buy. The best stock in the world can be a bad trade if you buy at the top of an overbought pattern.

💡 The Birmingham Connection

Many BBYM graduates who go on to trade or invest professionally use TA daily — not as a crystal ball, but as a risk management tool. Knowing support levels tells you where to place stop-losses. Knowing overbought/oversold conditions tells you when not to chase. This is how traders protect capital.

Technical Analysis vs. Fundamental Analysis
📈 Technical Analysis
Studies price charts and volume
Answers: When to buy/sell
Short to medium-term focus
Works on any market: stocks, crypto, forex
Indicators: RSI, MACD, Bollinger Bands
Used by: day traders, swing traders
📊 Fundamental Analysis
Studies earnings, balance sheets, moats
Answers: What to buy/sell
Long-term focus (months to years)
Best for stocks and bonds with financials
Metrics: P/E, EPS, revenue growth, DCF
Used by: value investors, analysts

How to Read a Candlestick

Every candlestick represents one time period of price action — 1 minute, 1 hour, 1 day, or 1 week. Four data points are packed into every single candle.

The Three Most Important Candle Types
Bullish (Green) Candle Close is HIGHER than open. Green/hollow body shows buyers won the period. Long lower wick = buyers defended a low and pushed back up strongly. The longer the green body, the stronger the buying pressure.
OHLC: Open $150 · High $158 · Low $148 · Close $156
Bearish (Red) Candle Close is LOWER than open. Red/filled body shows sellers dominated the period. Long upper wick = buyers tried to push price up but were rejected — a bearish signal. The longer the red body, the stronger the selling pressure.
OHLC: Open $156 · High $159 · Low $149 · Close $151
Doji (Indecision) Candle Open and close are nearly equal — the body is tiny or nonexistent. Signals market indecision: bulls and bears fought to a draw. A doji after a strong trend is a reversal warning — the trend may be losing momentum. Context determines significance.
OHLC: Open $154 · High $160 · Low $148 · Close $154.20

Six Essential Technical Indicators

Indicators are mathematical calculations applied to price and volume data. No single indicator is a crystal ball — professional traders use 2–3 that complement each other rather than stacking 20 that contradict.

Trend Indicator
Moving Average (MA)
Smooths price data into a trend line by averaging closing prices over N periods. The 50-day MA shows medium-term trend; the 200-day MA shows long-term trend. Price above MA = bullish. Price below = bearish.
Simple MA (SMA)
SMA(N) = (P₁ + P₂ + … + Pₙ) / N
Golden Cross: 50-day crosses ABOVE 200-day → bullish
Death Cross: 50-day crosses BELOW 200-day → bearish
Momentum Indicator
RSI — Relative Strength Index
Measures the speed and magnitude of recent price changes on a 0–100 scale. RSI above 70 = overbought (potential reversal down). RSI below 30 = oversold (potential reversal up). The most widely used momentum indicator globally.
RSI Formula
RS = Avg Gain (14 days) / Avg Loss (14 days)
RSI = 100 − (100 / (1 + RS))
Range: 0–100 · Neutral zone: 40–60
Momentum + Trend
MACD
Moving Average Convergence Divergence — tracks the relationship between two EMAs (12-day and 26-day). The MACD line crossing above the signal line generates a buy signal; crossing below signals sell. The histogram shows momentum strength.
MACD Components
MACD Line = EMA(12) − EMA(26)
Signal Line = EMA(9) of MACD Line
Histogram = MACD Line − Signal Line
Volatility Indicator
Bollinger Bands
Three bands: a middle 20-day SMA flanked by upper and lower bands set 2 standard deviations away. When bands squeeze (narrow), volatility is low and a breakout is imminent. Price touching the upper band = overbought; lower band = oversold.
Band Calculation
Middle Band = SMA(20)
Upper Band = SMA(20) + (2 × StdDev)
Lower Band = SMA(20) − (2 × StdDev)
Volume Indicator
OBV — On-Balance Volume
Tracks cumulative volume flow to confirm price trends. If price rises on high volume, OBV rises — confirming the move. If price rises on low volume, OBV lags — warning of a weak trend. Divergence between OBV and price is one of the most powerful signals in TA.
OBV Rule
If Close > Prior Close: OBV = OBV + Volume
If Close < Prior Close: OBV = OBV − Volume
Rising price + falling OBV = bearish divergence ⚠
Support & Resistance
S/R Levels
Support is a price floor where buying demand historically stops a decline. Resistance is a price ceiling where selling pressure historically stops a rally. Once broken, support becomes resistance and vice versa — a concept called role reversal.
Key Principle
More touches of a level = stronger the level
High volume at a level = institutional interest
Break + retest confirms the new level's validity

Six Chart Patterns Every Trader Knows

Chart patterns are price formations that signal likely future movement. They work because they represent recurring psychological battles between buyers and sellers that resolve in predictable ways.

▲ Bullish Pattern
Head & Shoulders (Inverse)
neckline break → bullish
Three troughs: left shoulder, lower head, right shoulder (equal to left). A break above the neckline confirms a bullish reversal from a downtrend. One of the most reliable reversal patterns in all of TA.
BUY signal on neckline breakout
▼ Bearish Pattern
Head & Shoulders (Top)
neckline break → bearish
Three peaks: left shoulder, higher head, right shoulder. A break below the neckline signals trend reversal from uptrend to downtrend. Volume typically decreases on the right shoulder — a warning sign before the break.
SELL/SHORT on neckline breakdown
▲ Bullish Pattern
Ascending Triangle
flat resistance + rising lows
Flat resistance at the top, rising lows (ascending trendline) at the bottom. The market is coiling with buyers stepping in at higher and higher prices. A breakout above resistance on high volume is a strong bullish signal.
BUY on breakout above flat resistance
▼ Bearish Pattern
Descending Triangle
flat support + falling highs
Flat support at the bottom, declining highs (descending trendline) at the top. Sellers are incrementally taking control, lowering their selling price with each rally. A breakdown below support is a strong bearish signal.
SELL/SHORT on breakdown below support
↔ Continuation Pattern
Bull Flag
strong pole + tight consolidation
A sharp, nearly vertical price surge (the pole) followed by a tight, slightly downward-drifting consolidation (the flag). The pattern signals a brief pause before the trend continues. Breakout from the flag targets a move equal to the pole's length.
BUY on flag breakout (target = pole length)
↔ Reversal Pattern
Double Top / Double Bottom
double top shown — bearish reversal
Double Top: two peaks at the same level — price tried to break resistance twice and failed. Bearish reversal on neckline break. Double Bottom (inverse): two troughs at same level — bullish reversal on neckline break. The "M" and "W" patterns of TA.
Direction depends on top or bottom

Calculate RSI & Moving Average Crossover

Enter price data to compute real indicator values — and see what signals they generate.

📊 RSI Calculator (14-period)
RSI Value
Average Gain (14-day)
Average Loss (14-day)
RS Ratio
📈 MA Crossover Signal
Price vs MA50
Price vs MA200
MA50 vs MA200
Distance to MA50
Distance to MA200

Technical Analysis Glossary

The vocabulary of chart readers — from price action to indicator interpretation.

Support
A price level where buying demand consistently stops a decline. The more times price bounces off a level, the stronger the support.
Ex: Stock bounces off $150 three times → strong support
Resistance
A price level where selling pressure consistently stops a rally. When resistance is broken, it often becomes new support (role reversal).
Ex: Stock struggles to break $200 for months → strong resistance
Trend
The general direction of price movement. Uptrend = higher highs and higher lows. Downtrend = lower highs and lower lows. Sideways = no clear directional bias.
Ex: Higher lows on each pullback = healthy uptrend
RSI
Relative Strength Index (0–100). Above 70 = overbought. Below 30 = oversold. One of the most reliable momentum indicators when used with trend context.
Ex: RSI at 28 in an uptrend = strong buy opportunity
MACD
Moving Average Convergence Divergence. Bullish when MACD line crosses above signal line. Bearish when it crosses below. The histogram shows the gap between the two lines.
Ex: MACD bullish crossover confirmed with rising volume
Golden Cross
When the 50-day moving average crosses above the 200-day MA — a major bullish signal watched by institutional investors worldwide.
Ex: S&P 500 golden cross historically precedes bull markets
Death Cross
When the 50-day moving average crosses below the 200-day MA — a major bearish signal. Can confirm a downtrend already underway.
Ex: Bitcoin death cross in 2022 preceded further decline
Bollinger Bands
Volatility envelope: a 20-day SMA with upper/lower bands 2 standard deviations away. Band squeeze = low volatility, breakout coming. Price outside bands = extreme move.
Ex: Bands tighten for 3 weeks → explosive breakout follows
Divergence
When price makes a new high/low but the indicator does not confirm. Bearish divergence: price makes higher high, RSI makes lower high — trend weakening. Often precedes reversals.
Ex: Price new ATH + RSI declining = bearish divergence
Volume
The number of shares/contracts traded in a period. High volume confirms price moves; low volume warns of weak or false breakouts. Volume is the "truth detector" of price action.
Ex: Breakout on 3× average volume = strong confirmation
Breakout
When price moves decisively above resistance or below support on high volume. Confirmed breakouts often lead to rapid moves equal to the size of the prior consolidation range.
Ex: $200 resistance broken on 4× volume → target $220
Overbought / Oversold
Terms describing when an asset has moved too far too fast in one direction. Overbought suggests selling pressure may increase; oversold suggests buying may emerge. RSI is the primary gauge.
Ex: RSI 78 after a 40% rally = proceed with caution
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